Photo : Vadim Savitsky/Russian Defence Ministry/TASS
01 September 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #295
War in Ukraine: Day 189
By Sai Pranav
War on the Ground
On 31 August, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met with Georgia’s Foreign Minister Ilia Darchiashvili at the informal EU Foreign Ministers meeting in Prague. In the meet they discussed eastern partnership and bilateral relations between Ukraine and Georgia.
On the same day, the employees of the Ukrainian energy firm that looks after Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant. Energoatom, welcomed officials from the IAEA who arrived at Zaporizhzhya for an inspection of nuclear plant. The energy company wants the IAEA push Russia for demilitarization of the ZNPP area. It also wants IAEA to notice all the violations the Russian troops have caused in the complex.
Also on 31 August, Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence reported that the Russian Defence Ministry is recruiting conscription officers from Moscow and Leningrad regions. The mobilization of soldiers from Buryatia, Tuvan, the republics of the Caucasus, and other unfavourable parts of Russia is seen to be exhausted. To replenish the troops in Crimea, Russia is trying to recruit from Moscow and Leningrad regions. The recruitment also extends to private armies and mercenary soldiers like the Wagner group.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 30 August, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said that the country would retaliate against the EU's decision to suspend the bloc's visas to Russians except for humanitarian purposes. He also said that there would be consequences to the EU's withdrawal from the visa facilitation agreement. The EU would open its arms to the citizens of Russia who are against the government's decision to invade Ukraine.
On 31 August, the strategic command post exercises Vostok-2022 began with an opening ceremony at the Sergeyevsky training ground in the Primorsky Region in Russia. Fourteen countries will participate in the training, including India, China, Azerbaijan and others. The exercises are focused on improving the military capabilities of the forces of each country that takes part in it. The exercises will be held from 01 to 07 September.
On the same day, saboteurs who had intentions of conducting a terrorist attack on the inspectors from the IAEA, who had come to Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant to check up on it after shelling the region, had been apprehended by the Russian officials who resided in the invaded area. Arms and ammunition were discovered with them.
Also, on the same day, Russia banned the entry of 55 high-ranking Canadians as a reply to the sanctions imposed against it by the government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The 55 officials were permanently barred from entering Russia. The actions by Russia were also retaliation for the Russophobic behaviour of Canada.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 31 August, EU Foreign Ministers gathered to discuss the visa ban for Russians and the eighth set of sanctions. With ambiguity still remaining over countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Finland which share border with Russia unclear, imposing a blanket ban on Russians is still a challenge for the EU. According to Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky, EU's executive council will look ways to find solution for the already issues 12 million Schengen visas. But France and Germany stand against the decision. In a join memo: "We caution against far-reaching restrictions on our visa policy, in order to prevent feeding the Russian narrative and triggering unintended rallying-around the flag effects and/or estranging future generations."
The UK's Ministry of Defence reported on how the Ukrainian Armed Forces pushing back the Russian military. It also highlighted on Russia attempts in replenishing its troops in Ukraine.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 30 August, Syria received S-300 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. According to a Israeli satellite company, the supply of the missiles is viewed as a way to boost the air-defences against Ukriane. Russia which has held its military in Syria since 2015, continues to use Turkiye straits to ship its weapons through civilian ships into Syria.
On 01 September, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Finance Ministers of the G7 countries will agree on price cap on Russian oil and petroleum products on 02 September. The final mechanisms of the restriction are expected to take place by December.
References
“Dmytro Kuleba met with Minister of Foreign Affairs of Georgia Ilia Darchiashvili,” mfa.gov.ua, 31 August 2022
Energoatom, “The demilitarization of the Zaporizhia NPP,” Telegram, 31 August 2022
“Desperate Russian Army Forced to Recruit from Moscow,” Kyiv Post, 31 August 2022
“Russia promises retaliation over EU visa move,” RT, 31 August 2022
“Vostok-2022 strategic military exercises start in Primorsky Region,” TASS, 31 August 2022
“Ukrainian saboteurs plotted nuclear plant attack – officials,” RT, 31 August
“Statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry on the imposition of personal sanctions against a number of Canadian citizens,” mid.ru, 31 August 2022
Matt Murphy, “Nord Stream 1: Russia shuts major gas pipeline to Europe,” BBC, 01 September 2022
Ministry of Defence, “Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 31 August 2022,” Twitter, 31 August 2022
"EU complicates travel rules for Russians but baulks at visa ban," Reuters, 31 August 2022
“First InvestEU project in Germany: €60 million for construction of affordable and energy-efficient flats,” ec.europa.eu, 31 August 2022
“1st UN food ship from Ukraine docks in Africa, 2nd sets sail for Yemen,” Daily Sabah, 30 August 2022
“G7 finance ministers to approve oil prices ceiling plan on September 2 — newspaper,” TASS, 01 September 2022
"Russia ships S-300 air defense missiles from Syria to Crimea," Daily Sabah, 30 August 2022
IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee
GERMANY
Germany’s EUR nine travel ticket scheme comes to an end
On 31 August, Germany's EUR nine transit scheme for internal travel ended. From June, people in Germany who used regional or local public transport as many times as required, at a fixed rate. A total of 52 million tickets have been sold due to this scheme. Introduced to support citizens with the rising prices fuel and transport prices, the tickets cost the federal government over EUR 2.5 billion in subsidies. Though the German Transport Association said that the scheme would lead to a reduction of 1.8 million tonnes in carbon dioxide emissions, the estimation remain to be disputed. However, the move was a political and social success as in August, 17 per cent of users switched from personal to public transport. (Jenny Hill, “Germans say goodbye to summer of €9 travel tickets,” BBC, 31 August 2022)
Germany to compensate families of Munich Olympics victims from Israel
On 31 August, BBC reported on Germany agreeing to a compensation deal with relatives of the Israelis killed during the 1972 Munich Olympics. On 05 September 1972, eleven Israeli athletes were taken hostage inside the Olympic village by Palestine’s Black September militant group. Two of them were killed immediately, and the rest were killed during a gun battle with West German police at a nearby airfield. As compensation for the incident, Germany agreed to a EUR 28 million deal with the families of the victims. It has also offered to declassify documents related to the hostage-taking and the botched rescue operation On this issue, Germany’s president Frank-Walter Steinmeier said that he was “happy and relieved” to have reached an agreement on historical clarification. Israel’s president Isaac Herzog said that it was an important step by Germany’s government. (Malu Cursino, “Munich Olympics massacre compensation deal struck,” BBC, 31 August 2022)
MONTENEGRO
FBI team to look into Montenegro cyberattack
On 31 August, Montenegro’s Internal Affairs Ministry announced that a team of FBI cyber experts will come to the country to investigate the massive, coordinated attack on the government and its services. A combination of ransomware and distributed denial-of-service attacks were conducted on Montenegro’s government services and state infrastructure. Because of the attack, the online government services remained unreachable, and the state’s electrical utility switched to manual control; water supply systems and transportation services were also affected. The Director of the Directorate for Information Security, Dusan Polovic, mentioned that 150 computers were infected with malware, at a dozen state institutions. A cybercriminal extortion gang that included Russian speakers claimed responsibility for part of the attack. They said that a ransomware called Cuba was used. The Agency for National Security in Montenegro blamed the attack on Russia, though it did not provide any evidence. However, officials maintain Russia has motive for the attack, as Montenegro, a former Russia-ally, joined NATO in 2017. It also joined the western sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. (Predrag Milic, “FBI’s team to investigate massive cyberattack in Montenegro,” AP News, 31 August 2022)
The UK
BBC released report on Boris Johnson’s pledges
On 31 August, BBC released an analysis about UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s time in office and if he has been able to deliver on his pledges. First, Johnson had pledged the recruitment of more police, nurses, and general practitioners (GP). In terms of recruitment of police officers, the government is two-thirds of the way to its goal, with one year to go. In terms of nurses, almost half the total number pledged has been reached, while for GPs, numbers have actually decreased by 314. Second Johnson had also pledged to increase the number of hospitals by 40 and also add 30,000 more homes per year. Of these 40 hospitals, 22 were rebuilding projects, 12 were new wings, three were the renovation of urgent care units and 3 were new hospitals. One of the 40 hospitals opened for patients in 2021 and six projects are under construction. In terms of houses, 242,700 dwellings were added in 2019-20, while the number fell to 216,490 in 2020-21. Third, the Brexit. Which has been achieved, but many issues like the Northern Ireland protocol and various financial services still remain unresolved. Fourth, Johnson had promised to introduce the Australian-style points-based immigration system. This system has been installed, but the process has not been smooth-sailing. Fifth, economic reforms. No rise in rates of income tax, National Insurance, or VAT were some promises that Johnson made, but this manifesto was broken. The triple lock system for pensions has also been suspended. Only 0.5 per cent of the 0.7 per cent pledged gross national income has gone to international aid. Sixth, granting of full fiber broadband to all homes. While this manifesto was scaled back, there has been considerable progress on this with gigabyte coverage increasing from 10 percent in 2019 to 70 per cent. Seventh, in terms of dealing with COVID-19, the UK was the first country to approve a COVID-19 vaccine and had the fastest vaccine program until May 2021. In terms of growth in the G7, Johnson had promised to make the UK the fastest growing economy. While he managed that in certain timeframes, overall, the UK is in third place with 0.7 per cent growth. (“Boris Johnson resignation: Did the outgoing prime minister meet his pledges?,” BBC, 31 August 2022)
REGIONAL
European Commission adopts new rule to promote biological plant production products
On 31 August, the European Commission adopted new rules regarding plant production products. As per the new rules, availability and access to biological plant protection products will be increased. Micro-organisms will be approved for use as active substances and farmers will be introduced to new sustainable tools to replace chemical plant protection products. Though 60 microorganisms have been approved by the EU so far, stakeholders say that they are unable to access them due to maladapted regulation. The new rules will facilitate better scientific risk assessment of the microorganisms leading to faster authorization and usage. The move comes under the bloc’s flagship food policy called the Farm to Fork strategy, which aims to cut the use of chemical pesticides in half by 2030, thereby also improving the organic sector. The EU Commissioner for Health and Food Safety, Stella Kyriakides hailed this new development and said: With these new rules, we will ensure that biological alternatives can reach our farmers even faster… facilitate this process by increasing the biological and low-risk alternatives on the market”. (Natasha Foote, “Commission adopts new rules to fastrack approval of biological pesticides,” Euractiv, 31 August 2022)
Baltic countries and EU officials take part in Sea Summit to decide on increasing offshore wind capacity
On 30 August, European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen and Commissioner for Energy, Kadri Simson too part in the Baltic Sea Summit in Copenhagen. Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Finland, and Sweden took part in the summit and signed the Marienborg Declaration. According to the declaration, the countries commit to increasing the offshore wind capacity of the region by seven times up to 20 gigawatts by 2030. Von der Leyen gave her remarks about the summit and said that it was yet another effort to cut their dependence on Russia’s fossil fuels and also become climate neutral. If the targets set at the meeting are met, it will cover the energy consumption of six million households by 2030. In this regard, Von der Leyen mentioned it would exceed the total households in Denmark, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia combined and hailed it as “amazing.” (“President Von der Leyen and Commissioner Simson participated in the Baltic Sea Summit,” ec.europa.eu, 31 August 2022)